Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Survey Reflects Overall Economic Outlook of Texas Businesses in August

August 27, 2024

Dallas, TX (Highpoint Digest) – For the month of August 2024, a survey was conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where a number of Texas business executives were asked supplemental questions on expected demand, employment and impacts from recent storms. The results of these questions come from the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey and Texas Retail Outlook Survey have been released together. Read the special questions results below.

Texas Business Outlook Surveys

Data were collected August 13–21, and 341 Texas business executives responded to the surveys.

1. How do you expect demand for your firm’s goods and/or services over the next six months to compare with the past six months, aside from seasonal variation?

	Feb. ’23 (percent)	Nov. ’23 (percent)	Feb. ’24 (percent)	Aug. ’24 (percent)
Increase substantially	8.0	4.1	4.8	3.0
Increase slightly	34.7	34.0	47.1	44.2
Remain the same	30.4	33.4	27.7	30.1
Decrease slightly	20.4	22.4	17.1	20.0
Decrease substantially	6.5	6.1	3.4	2.7

NOTES: 335 responses. In February 2023, the question asked about 2023 versus 2022.

2. What is your assessment of your firm’s current employment situation in light of your six-month outlook?

	Oct. ’22 (percent)	Jan. ’23 (percent)	Jun. ’23 (percent)	Dec. ’23 (percent)	Aug. ’24 (percent)
We are understaffed and looking to hire for new positions	30.8	27.8	25.2	21.4	17.0
We are understaffed and looking to hire for replacement only	19.7	18.6	19.0	16.9	14.9
We are understaffed but opting not to hire at this time	12.3	14.0	11.8	13.1	14.0
We are at our ideal staffing level	21.2	23.0	28.6	29.7	36.3
We are overstaffed but opting not to lay off workers at this time	4.8	6.8	10.6	14.6	12.5
We are overstaffed and laying off workers	3.6	3.9	2.8	2.6	2.7
Other	7.7	5.8	2.0	1.7	2.7

NOTE: 336 responses.

3. Did your firm experience any negative impact from the storms over the past few months?

	Aug. ’24 (percent)
No	74.2
Yes	25.8

NOTE: 325 responses.

3a. Please indicate what impact(s) and when.

Reduced production	26.1	4.3	69.6
Extended loss of power	17.4	4.3	52.2
Workforce disruption (absenteeism, etc.)	13.0	4.3	47.8
Damaged facility and/or equipment	8.7	8.7	34.8
Transportation and/or supply-chain disruptions	13.0	4.3	34.8
Reduced demand	0.0	0.0	21.7
Delayed hiring	8.7	4.3	8.7
Workforce reduction (furloughs or layoffs)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other	8.7	8.7	4.3

NOTES: 82 responses. This question was only posed to those who experienced a negative impact from the storms over the past few months.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected August 13–21, and 82 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

1. How do you expect demand for your firm’s goods and/or services over the next six months to compare with the past six months, aside from seasonal variation?

	Feb. ’23 (percent)	Nov. ’23 (percent)	Feb. ’24 (percent)	Aug. ’24 (percent)
Increase substantially	11.0	5.7	5.5	1.3
Increase slightly	30.0	33.0	46.2	53.8
Remain the same	28.0	29.5	23.1	20.0
Decrease slightly	17.0	20.5	17.6	22.5
Decrease substantially	14.0	11.4	7.7	2.5

NOTES: 80 responses. In February 2023, the question asked about 2023 versus 2022.

2. What is your assessment of your firm’s current employment situation in light of your six-month outlook?

	Oct. ’22 (percent)	Jan. ’23 (percent)	Jun. ’23 (percent)	Dec. ’23 (percent)	Aug. ’24 (percent)
We are understaffed and looking to hire for new positions	29.8	29.0	23.2	18.9	17.3
We are understaffed and looking to hire for replacement only	21.3	19.0	23.2	16.7	19.8
We are understaffed but opting not to hire at this time	13.8	17.0	8.5	16.7	16.0
We are at our ideal staffing level	14.9	17.0	26.8	27.8	27.2
We are overstaffed but opting not to lay off workers at this time	8.5	9.0	13.4	18.9	13.6
We are overstaffed and laying off workers	4.3	3.0	2.4	1.1	2.5
Other	7.4	6.0	2.4	0.0	3.7

NOTE: 81 responses.

3. Did your firm experience any negative impact from the storms over the past few months?

	Aug. ’24 (percent)
No	68.8
Yes	31.2

NOTE: 77 responses.

3a. Please indicate what impact(s) and when.

	May ’24 (percent)	Jun. ’24 (percent)	Jul. ’24 (percent)
Reduced production	26.1	4.3	69.6
Extended loss of power	17.4	4.3	52.2
Workforce disruption (absenteeism, etc.)	13.0	4.3	47.8
Damaged facility and/or equipment	8.7	8.7	34.8
Transportation and/or supply-chain disruptions	13.0	4.3	34.8
Reduced demand	0.0	0.0	21.7
Delayed hiring	8.7	4.3	8.7
Workforce reduction (furloughs or layoffs)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other	8.7	8.7	4.3

NOTES: 23 responses. This question was only posed to those who experienced a negative impact from the storms over the past few months.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected August 13–21, and 259 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

1. How do you expect demand for your firm’s goods and/or services over the next six months to compare with the past six months, aside from seasonal variation?

	Feb. ’23 (percent)	Nov. ’23 (percent)	Feb. ’24 (percent)	Aug. ’24 (percent)
Increase substantially	7.0	3.6	4.5	3.5
Increase slightly	36.2	34.3	47.4	41.2
Remain the same	31.2	34.7	29.3	33.3
Decrease slightly	21.6	23.0	16.9	19.2
Decrease substantially	4.0	4.4	1.9	2.7

NOTES: 255 responses. In February 2023, the question asked about 2023 versus 2022.

2. What is your assessment of your firm’s current employment situation in light of your six-month outlook?

	Oct. ’22 (percent)	Jan. ’23 (percent)	Jun. ’23 (percent)	Dec. ’23 (percent)	Aug. ’24 (percent)
We are understaffed and looking to hire for new positions	31.1	27.5	25.8	22.3	16.9
We are understaffed and looking to hire for replacement only	19.3	18.5	17.8	16.9	13.3
We are understaffed but opting not to hire at this time	11.8	13.1	12.7	11.9	13.3
We are at our ideal staffing level	23.0	24.9	29.1	30.4	39.2
We are overstaffed but opting not to lay off workers at this time	3.7	6.1	9.8	13.1	12.2
We are overstaffed and laying off workers	3.4	4.2	2.9	3.1	2.7
Other	7.8	5.8	1.8	2.3	2.4

NOTE: 255 responses.

3. Did your firm experience any negative impact from the storms over the past few months?

	Aug. ’24 (percent)
No	75.8
Yes	24.2

NOTE: 248 responses.

3a. Please indicate what impact(s) and when.

	May ’24 (percent)	Jun. ’24 (percent)	Jul. ’24 (percent)
Reduced revenue	18.6	18.6	50.8
Workforce disruption (absenteeism, etc.)	18.6	16.9	49.2
Extended loss of power	18.6	16.9	47.5
Damaged facility and/or equipment	13.6	11.9	27.1
Reduced demand	10.2	15.3	23.7
Transportation and/or supply-chain disruptions	8.5	10.2	16.9
Delayed hiring	5.1	3.4	6.8
Workforce reduction (furloughs or layoffs)	0.0	1.7	3.4
Other	0.0	0.0	1.7

NOTES: 59 responses. This question was only posed to those who experienced a negative impact from the storms over the past few months.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Data were collected August 13–21, and 49 Texas retailers responded to the survey.

1. How do you expect demand for your firm’s goods and/or services over the next six months to compare with the past six months, aside from seasonal variation?

	Feb. ’23 (percent)	Nov. ’23 (percent)	Feb. ’24 (percent)	Aug. ’24 (percent)
Increase substantially	4.4	3.5	1.8	2.1
Increase slightly	23.5	31.6	36.4	29.2
Remain the same	39.7	33.3	30.9	39.6
Decrease slightly	29.4	28.1	30.9	25.0
Decrease substantially	2.9	3.5	0.0	4.2

NOTES: 48 responses. In February 2023, the question asked about 2023 versus 2022.

2. What is your assessment of your firm’s current employment situation in light of your six-month outlook?

	Oct. ’22 (percent)	Jan. ’23 (percent)	Jun. ’23 (percent)	Dec. ’23 (percent)	Aug. ’24 (percent)
We are understaffed and looking to hire for new positions	31.8	24.3	26.7	20.0	6.3
We are understaffed and looking to hire for replacement only	19.7	24.3	18.3	20.0	18.8
We are understaffed but opting not to hire at this time	9.1	11.4	8.3	10.9	12.5
We are at our ideal staffing level	22.7	31.4	33.3	30.9	31.3
We are overstaffed but opting not to lay off workers at this time	7.6	8.6	13.3	12.7	18.8
We are overstaffed and laying off workers	3.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	8.3
Other	6.1	0.0	0.0	3.6	4.2

NOTE: 48 responses.

3. Did your firm experience any negative impact from the storms over the past few months?

	Aug. ’24 (percent)
No	70.8
Yes	29.2

NOTE: 48 responses.

3a. Please indicate what impact(s) and when.

	May ’24 (percent)	Jun. ’24 (percent)	Jul. ’24 (percent)
Reduced sales	28.6	14.3	64.3
Extended loss of power	14.3	14.3	50.0
Reduced demand	14.3	7.1	35.7
Workforce disruption (absenteeism, etc.)	7.1	14.3	35.7
Damaged facility and/or equipment	21.4	7.1	21.4
Transportation and/or supply-chain disruptions	14.3	14.3	21.4
Workforce reduction (furloughs or layoffs)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Delayed hiring	0.0	0.0	0.0
Other	0.0	0.0	0.0