- September’s rate drop and increase in new listings led to October’s increase in pending sales, but could rising rates in October hinder momentum?
- Affordability issues in swing states may have these voters more interested in Federal housing policies
October 31, 2024
SANTA CLARA, Calif., (Highpoint Digest News) − Last month’s home sellers not only listed their homes, but bought new ones and sent a surge of demand into the market this month, according to the Realtor.com® October Monthly Housing Report. The rise in new listings seen in September was strongly correlated to a rise in pending sales this month, with significant pending home sales increases in Boston (+25.7%), San Diego, Calif. (+22.1%), and Seattle (+50.5%).
“Existing home sales have been disappointingly low so far in 2024 as mortgage rates remained stubbornly high, but the data show that sellers–many of whom are also buyers–responded as mortgage rates volleyed in the low- to mid-6% range in recent weeks,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com®. “The increase in new listings and subsequent rise in pending sales suggest that we will finally see home sales pick up in the late fall, which would mark the first yearly gain in more than 3 years.”
October 2024 Housing Metrics – National
|
Metric |
Change over Oct. 2023 |
Change over Oct. 2019 |
|
Median listing price |
0% (to $424,950) |
+37.1 % |
|
Active listings |
+29.2 % |
-21.1 % |
|
New Listings |
+9.9 % |
-14.3 % |
|
Median days on market |
+8 days (to 58 days) |
-7 days |
|
Share of active listings with price reductions |
+0.0 percentage points (to 18.6%) |
+1.1 percentage points |
|
Median List Price Per Sq.Ft. |
+2.1 % |
+50.5 % |
Sellers Offload and Scoop up Homes
When sellers list their homes on the market it could point to a number of likely scenarios. On the one hand, the seller could be listing a primary residence with the intention to buy another home, they could be selling to move into a rental, or they could be selling a secondary home. This month, the data suggests that many sellers are selling primary residences and buying new homes through the very strong correlation between increased new listings in September 2024 and the increase in pending listings this month across the largest 50 markets.
In fact, a few of the largest markets including Seattle, Boston, and San Diego, Calif. saw some of the largest increases in pending listings this month with 50.5%, 25.7%, and 22.1%, respectively, while also experiencing some of the largest increases in new listings last month at 41.8%, 24.4%, and 21.5%, respectively.
Mirror Mirror on the Wall, Show Me Where the Swing States May Fall
Home affordability is top of mind for many people especially in the current real estate market. As the median listing price per square foot increased by 2.1% in October relative to October of last year, the price per square foot has grown by 50.6% since October 2019. When taking a deeper dive into this factor at the state level, interestingly, home prices in swing states sit at 30-40% less expensive than blue states on a per square foot basis, and 10-20% more expensive than red states.
“When it comes to home prices, swing states have mirrored red states much more than blue states over the past four years. If rising home prices since the last election matter for voters next week, it implies that swing state voters may have federal housing policy on their minds much less than voters in blue states but perhaps a little more than voters in red states” said Ralph McLaughlin, Sr. Economist, Realtor.com®.
Inventory Hits A High
On a typical day in October, there were 29.2% more homes actively for sale compared to October 2023, reaching the highest level of active inventory since December 2019. Every region experienced a significant rise in new listings compared with October 2023. The West led the pack with an increase of 7%, followed by 5.1% in the Midwest, 3.2% in the Northeast, and 2.9% in the South.
While active inventory hit its highest level since December 2019, it’s important to note the gap in newly listed homes compared with pre-pandemic 2017 to 2019 levels is still apparent, though dwindling. The South continues to close the gap as newly listed homes sat just 8.8% below pre-pandemic levels whereas the other regions continue to feel the difference. Newly listed inventory sits 19.2% below pre-pandemic levels in the West, 16.5% in the Midwest, and 20.0% in the Northeast.
October 2024 Housing Overview of the 50 Largest Metros
|
Metro Area |
Median Listing Price |
Median Listing Price YoY |
Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. YoY |
Median Listing Price vs October 2019 |
Median Listing Price per Sq. Ft. vs October 2019 |
|
$410,000 |
-3.5 % |
0.5 % |
29.0 % |
50.1 % |
|
|
$520,000 |
-5.4 % |
-4.0 % |
44.7 % |
54.8 % |
|
|
$369,995 |
0.7 % |
1.5 % |
14.0 % |
28.8 % |
|
|
$299,947 |
1.7 % |
1.3 % |
13.2 % |
27.3 % |
|
|
$837,450 |
0.0 % |
2.3 % |
42.5 % |
60.3 % |
|
|
$269,900 |
5.9 % |
5.4 % |
35.0 % |
46.2 % |
|
|
$429,947 |
2.1 % |
1.4 % |
28.1 % |
57.1 % |
|
|
$369,000 |
-0.3 % |
1.9 % |
17.4 % |
32.6 % |
|
|
$331,460 |
-7.0 % |
3.5 % |
25.0 % |
51.0 % |
|
|
$250,000 |
5.0 % |
12.0 % |
29.2 % |
51.5 % |
|
|
$368,900 |
0.7 % |
4.1 % |
31.8 % |
54.6 % |
|
|
$434,500 |
-3.2 % |
0.0 % |
26.3 % |
43.2 % |
|
|
$600,000 |
-5.5 % |
-0.3 % |
21.2 % |
40.9 % |
|
|
$271,200 |
7.5 % |
4.9 % |
14.4 % |
32.1 % |
|
|
$399,900 |
0.0 % |
13.0 % |
34.0 % |
63.2 % |
|
|
$369,450 |
0.1 % |
0.2 % |
19.4 % |
37.0 % |
|
|
$321,950 |
0.6 % |
3.6 % |
23.5 % |
52.3 % |
|
|
$397,750 |
-6.4 % |
-2.7 % |
32.6 % |
49.9 % |
|
|
$377,000 |
-8.6 % |
-1.7 % |
20.8 % |
41.7 % |
|
|
$475,000 |
0.0 % |
4.3 % |
48.4 % |
54.6 % |
|
|
$1,150,000 |
-0.8 % |
1.9 % |
37.4 % |
46.7 % |
|
|
$317,400 |
3.9 % |
3.8 % |
24.7 % |
41.8 % |
|
|
$334,900 |
5.1 % |
0.0 % |
45.5 % |
59.7 % |
|
|
$525,000 |
-12.3 % |
-8.8 % |
31.5 % |
42.1 % |
|
|
$377,500 |
11.0 % |
9.8 % |
42.5 % |
46.7 % |
|
|
$425,000 |
-1.5 % |
1.0 % |
25.0 % |
31.0 % |
|
|
$542,447 |
-5.4 % |
0.7 % |
46.6 % |
60.8 % |
|
|
$325,125 |
-2.8 % |
-1.9 % |
14.3 % |
24.7 % |
|
|
$762,375 |
4.5 % |
7.4 % |
31.9 % |
72.3 % |
|
|
$314,825 |
-5.9 % |
-0.5 % |
24.5 % |
39.9 % |
|
|
$427,450 |
-5.0 % |
-1.8 % |
33.7 % |
51.5 % |
|
|
$376,500 |
7.6 % |
5.2 % |
26.2 % |
50.0 % |
|
|
$519,950 |
-1.9 % |
-0.2 % |
35.4 % |
52.2 % |
|
|
$244,000 |
-1.1 % |
5.0 % |
22.6 % |
31.1 % |
|
|
$602,375 |
-2.8 % |
0.1 % |
29.4 % |
38.1 % |
|
|
$552,500 |
2.4 % |
6.2 % |
45.6 % |
46.8 % |
|
|
$450,000 |
-1.6 % |
1.4 % |
23.6 % |
50.4 % |
|
|
$443,018 |
1.8 % |
4.6 % |
38.5 % |
57.1 % |
|
|
$599,000 |
3.3 % |
1.7 % |
46.1 % |
57.8 % |
|
|
$277,450 |
11.0 % |
7.0 % |
38.8 % |
44.4 % |
|
|
$627,250 |
-3.4 % |
0.3 % |
29.2 % |
37.3 % |
|
|
$335,000 |
-3.5 % |
-2.2 % |
18.3 % |
36.4 % |
|
|
$979,200 |
-2.0 % |
0.8 % |
38.8 % |
57.4 % |
|
|
$996,500 |
-9.2 % |
-7.0 % |
4.9 % |
19.4 % |
|
|
$1,394,000 |
1.0 % |
1.5 % |
25.3 % |
25.5 % |
|
|
$759,975 |
-4.1 % |
-0.5 % |
29.8 % |
46.8 % |
|
|
$299,450 |
8.1 % |
3.0 % |
36.1 % |
27.1 % |
|
|
$399,999 |
-7.0 % |
-6.1 % |
42.9 % |
58.8 % |
|
|
$393,115 |
5.0 % |
5.5 % |
35.6 % |
45.6 % |
|
|
$599,781 |
0.0 % |
3.6 % |
26.3 % |
51.9 % |
|
Metro Area |
Active Listing Count YoY |
New Listing Count YoY |
Median Days on Market |
Median Days on Market Y-Y (Days) |
Price– Reduced Share |
Price- Reduced Share Y-Y (Percentage Points) |
|
47.2 % |
7.7 % |
51 |
8 |
22.4 % |
1.7 pp |
|
|
18.6 % |
-8.4 % |
73 |
13 |
24.2 % |
-10.0 pp |
|
|
31.1 % |
24.9 % |
36 |
-1 |
15.9 % |
-2.7 pp |
|
|
24.6 % |
11.5 % |
57 |
6 |
17.0 % |
-0.6 pp |
|
|
23.8 % |
8.8 % |
34 |
3 |
18.2 % |
-0.4 pp |
|
|
10.1 % |
-5.0 % |
42 |
3 |
10.4 % |
0.9 pp |
|
|
46.0 % |
-3.2 % |
53 |
13 |
22.8 % |
3.4 pp |
|
|
13.0 % |
11.2 % |
37 |
1 |
15.9 % |
0.4 pp |
|
|
25.7 % |
5.0 % |
37 |
5 |
20.7 % |
3.2 pp |
|
|
10.6 % |
0.7 % |
42 |
2 |
19.4 % |
1.8 pp |
|
|
33.2 % |
-1.1 % |
39 |
8 |
23.5 % |
-1.1 pp |
|
|
39.3 % |
6.1 % |
56 |
11 |
25.9 % |
-0.7 pp |
|
|
59.5 % |
13.5 % |
51 |
11 |
30.2 % |
1.0 pp |
|
|
12.8 % |
-1.3 % |
40 |
0 |
17.2 % |
1.7% pp |
|
|
12.9 % |
14.3 % |
33 |
-5 |
10.8 % |
2.3 pp |
|
|
26.2 % |
11.9 % |
50 |
4 |
16.9 % |
-3.8 pp |
|
|
15.5 % |
5.9 % |
46 |
5 |
27.5 % |
-1.4 pp |
|
|
50.6 % |
13.8 % |
70 |
19 |
26.1 % |
1.5 pp |
|
|
18.2 % |
7.8 % |
51 |
2 |
18.1 % |
-1.3 pp |
|
|
49.3 % |
16.3 % |
49 |
6 |
22.6 % |
3.3 pp |
|
|
39.2 % |
9.7 % |
48 |
4 |
14.0 % |
1.3% pp |
|
|
18.8 % |
2.2 % |
39 |
7 |
23.4 % |
1.3 pp |
|
|
30.6 % |
-9.0 % |
64 |
14 |
24.0 % |
0.6 pp |
|
|
57.2 % |
2.5 % |
74 |
18 |
17.3 % |
0.8 pp |
|
|
7.9 % |
4.3 % |
32 |
0 |
17.1 % |
-4.6 pp |
|
|
16.5 % |
6.3 % |
41 |
3 |
18.2 % |
-1.0 pp |
|
|
29.5 % |
16.8 % |
54 |
17 |
18.8 % |
-6.4 pp |
|
|
15.1 % |
0.5 % |
79 |
12 |
18.4 % |
-3.3 pp |
|
|
4.2 % |
12.5 % |
54 |
-3 |
8.9 % |
-1.2 pp |
|
|
37.1 % |
14.6 % |
48 |
3 |
25.3 % |
2.5 pp |
|
|
57.1 % |
10.6 % |
69 |
19 |
23.1 % |
0.6 pp |
|
|
13.4 % |
6.8 % |
43 |
-1 |
16.0 % |
-0.3 pp |
|
|
41.7 % |
8.2 % |
50 |
13 |
28.6 % |
-0.8 pp |
|
|
19.3 % |
-1.7 % |
52 |
1 |
19.9 % |
-0.8 pp |
|
|
23.1 % |
14.9 % |
62 |
14 |
28.2 % |
6.9 pp |
|
|
22.5 % |
6.3 % |
36 |
3 |
19.1 % |
7.6 pp |
|
|
39.9 % |
3.2 % |
51 |
8 |
17.8 % |
-0.9 pp |
|
|
15.8 % |
6.5 % |
41 |
0 |
15.5 % |
2.9 pp |
|
|
37.5 % |
14.1 % |
54 |
5 |
17.1 % |
0.9 pp |
|
|
17.6 % |
-0.6 % |
38 |
20 |
5.5 % |
-6.2 pp |
|
|
43.1 % |
17.0 % |
47 |
6 |
19.4 % |
-0.8 pp |
|
|
17.6 % |
-0.1 % |
68 |
12 |
24.4 % |
-4.3 pp |
|
|
63.3 % |
8.3 % |
42 |
8 |
17.7 % |
2.6 pp |
|
|
21.5 % |
5.6 % |
38 |
4 |
14.7 % |
-0.6 pp |
|
|
32.7 % |
10.6 % |
34 |
3 |
13.1 % |
0.4 pp |
|
|
60.5 % |
17.5 % |
44 |
6 |
18.2 % |
0.8 pp |
|
|
9.6 % |
-3.2 % |
46 |
4 |
17.5 % |
-3.2 pp |
|
|
40.6 % |
-12.5 % |
73 |
29 |
22.6 % |
-4.5 pp |
|
|
30.0 % |
15.3 % |
43 |
5 |
20.4 % |
-1.0 pp |
|
|
26.2 % |
19.4 % |
34 |
-1 |
14.8 % |
-0.7 pp |
Methodology
Realtor.com housing data as of October 2024. Listings include the active inventory of existing single-family homes and condos/townhomes/row homes/co-ops for the given level of geography on Realtor.com; new construction is excluded unless listed via an MLS that provides listing data to Realtor.com. Realtor.com data history goes back to July 2016. The 50 largest U.S. metropolitan areas as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB-202003). With the release of its October 2024 housing trends report, Realtor.com® has restated data points for some previous months. As a result of these changes, some of the data released since September 2024 will not be directly comparable with previous data releases (files downloaded before September 2024) and Realtor.com® economics research reports.
Source: Realtor.com
Image Credit: HUD
